Cases

Three worked examples. Honest about what's validated and what's pending.

Three calibrations against real data — one validated (New Zealand), one in flight (Australia · NEM), one frontier (Niue + Pacific template). The mix demonstrates that the framework returns range, including the answer that productive surplus is not yet available.

Cases
Validated.
In flight.
Frontier.

One framework. Three structurally different starting points.

Each case below links to a dedicated page with calibration details, stats, and honest framing on what is built versus what is pending.

New Zealand
Band A every year for twenty-five years.

The waterfall returns no productive surplus across 2000–2024. EDGS Reference and Growth trajectories both remain Band A. Abundance requires ~90 TWh by 2035 — roughly double the current trajectory.

Read the full case →
Australia · NEM
Regional surplus heterogeneity matters more than national averages.

In flight. 31% of NEM intervals priced negatively in Q4 2025. Pilbara, SA, and Queensland present distinct productive-surplus profiles. Public-facing case published when complete.

Read the teaser →
Niue · Pacific
Surplus is engineered, not allocated.

Scoping. Microgrid oversizing creates the surplus that funds water, ice, cold-chain, and resilience. Diesel displacement anchors. Template designed for ~20 island states with parameter swaps.

Read the teaser →
Australia · New Zealand
The sovereignty you can't store.

Stockpiles buy days; production capacity buys decades. A fuel-security reserve is a one-shot bridge whose cost scales with days of cover — domestic production changes the shape of the problem, not just its size.

Read the case →
NZ set
Model.
Map.
Scorecard.

The New Zealand diagnostic set — the model's actual output, published.

Five artifacts generated directly from the calibrated New Zealand engine: an interactive explorer, the production-ceiling exhibit, the node-siting map, the housing scorecard, and the executive brief. Physical and regulatory quantities only — scenario, not forecast.

Interactive
Watch the two futures diverge, year by year.

Pick a country and the production-ceiling model runs 2024–2050 live — the abundance path against the reference path, the tier waterfall, the resource-and-capture panels, and a real regional map.

Open the explorer →
Ceiling
How many people can New Zealand power well?

The population sweep from 5 to 20 million against two per-capita bases, the essential-energy floor broken into heat, shelter, food and water, and the ecological limits that cap the ceiling itself.

Read the exhibit →
Siting
Where a chain should land is a look-up, not a working group.

Six layers — surplus energy, feedstock, port, water, workforce, grid headroom — scored region by region, so each industrial chain resolves to the place that already has what it needs.

Open the map →
Housing
Density's win normally costs carbon. Mass timber erases it.

Detached houses against three- and six-storey mass timber on two accounts — what it costs in energy and carbon to build, and what it costs forever to heat.

Read the scorecard →
Brief
The whole diagnosis, in a few pages.

The executive cut of the National Abundance Diagnostic for New Zealand — bands, tiers, the per-capita matrix and the priority stack, for readers who want the finding without the machinery.

Read the brief →
Engage

Want to commission a calibrated case in your jurisdiction?

New jurisdictions take 12–24 weeks to a first instance. Two-thirds of the library is universal; only five of fifteen cores require per-country calibration. A scoping call confirms data availability and scope.

Request a scoping conversation → Browse products

First instances are typically commissioned by national governments, DFIs, or anchor investors.