National Abundance Diagnostic · Production Ceiling
Run the same per-capita energy basis across five population levels and the physical ceiling scales from today’s ~41 TWh to ~218 TWh at 20 million people, fully electrified — roughly five times today’s output. This page is a scenario sweep, not a forecast: official Stats NZ projections reach only ~6.1–7.2 million people by 2051. Source: D-077 National Production Ceiling model (P1 vectors).
01 · Population sweep
Holding today’s per-capita basis (8.2 MWh/cap/yr) constant, implied supply scales linearly with population — 41 TWh at 5.0m to 164 TWh at 20m. Moving to a fully electrified per-capita basis (10.9 MWh/cap/yr) lifts every level by roughly a third, taking the 20m case to the headline 218 TWh. Only the 5.0m row sits inside Stats NZ’s own population projection (~6.1–7.2m by 2051); the 7.5 / 10 / 15 / 20 million rows are explicit SCENARIO population levels used to stress-test the ceiling, not forecasts.
Table — population × per-capita basis → implied supply
| Population | Status | Today basis · 8.2 MWh/cap | 2050-electrified basis · 10.9 MWh/cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0 m | OFFICIAL | 41.0 TWh | 54.5 TWh |
| 7.5 m | SCENARIO | 61.5 TWh | 81.8 TWh |
| 10 m | SCENARIO | 82.0 TWh | 109.0 TWh |
| 15 m | SCENARIO | 123.0 TWh | 163.5 TWh |
| 20 m | SCENARIO | 164.0 TWh | 218.0 TWh |
Today basis = 8.2 MWh/cap/yr, current actual per-capita consumption (official). 2050-electrified basis = 10.9 MWh/cap/yr, full-electrification projection (scenario). Floor reference: 2.5 MWh/cap/yr subsistence rising to 3.65 MWh/cap/yr electrified, COP-moderated — see section 02. Implied supply = population (m) × per-capita basis (MWh/cap/yr).
Chart — implied supply ceiling by population & basis
02 · Floor sub-split
The essential-minimum floor splits heat 53%, shelter 31%, food 12%, water 4% of subsistence demand. Heat is also the least-electrified sub-vector today (45%) and the only one where a heat pump’s COP (3.0) applies — which is why full electrification lowers the floor to 3.65 MWh/cap/yr, below today’s realised 4.53 MWh/cap/yr, despite raising comfort and reliability. The hard subsistence minimum, with no COP benefit assumed, is 2.5 MWh/cap/yr.
Stacked bar — floor sub-vector shares (subsistence)
Table — floor sub-vectors, subsistence vs realised, electrification & fidelity
| Sub-vector | Share | Subsistence MWh/cap | Realised (today) MWh/cap | % electrified today | COP applies | Fidelity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heat | 53% | 1.325 | 2.4 | 45% | Yes · 3.0 | S/EST |
| Shelter | 31% | 0.775 | 1.4 | 88% | No | S/EST |
| Food | 12% | 0.3 | 0.55 | 55% | No | EST |
| Water | 4% | 0.1 | 0.18 | 95% | No | S/EST |
| Floor total | 100% | 2.5 | 4.53 | — | — | — |
Electrified floor (COP-moderated, all sub-vectors fully electrified): 3.65 MWh/cap/yr. Subsistence floor (no COP benefit): 2.5 MWh/cap/yr. Realised floor (today’s actual, part-electrified mix): 4.53 MWh/cap/yr — higher than the electrified target because today’s heat supply is only 45% electrified and skews toward less efficient resistive/combustion sources.
03 · Ecological overlay · disclosed, non-binding
Carbon budgets, the renewable-electricity target and regional freshwater limits are real, sourced constraints on New Zealand’s build-out, disclosed here beside the production ceiling. None of them are netted into the TWh figures in section 01: carbon budgets bite process-emitting industrial anchors, not islanded renewable generation itself, and freshwater/land limits are regional, not national. This overlay is non-binding in the current model revision — it is a ceiling on what gets built with the power, not on the power.
Carbon budgets step down 305 → 240 → 160 Mt CO₂eSOURCED
EB2 2026–2030 = 305 Mt CO₂e; EB3 2031–2035 = 240 Mt; EB4 2036–2040 (proposed) = 160 Mt. For scale, net emissions in 2023 were 56.2 Mt CO₂e (one year, not a 5-yr budget). Budgets constrain process-emitting anchors, not islanded renewable electrons. Source: MfE GHG Inventory; Climate Change Commission (EB4 advice).
100% renewable electricity by 2035SOURCED
National policy target: 100% renewable electricity generation by 2035. This target sits alongside — and is consistent with — the islanded production-ceiling sweep in section 01, which assumes renewable build-out. Source: MfE / NZ policy.
Also disclosed (soft bite, not charted): DOC estate covers ~33% of NZ land; ~15% of highly productive land is NPS-HPL protected; utility solar uses ~1–1.7 ha/MW. Source: DOC / MPI / MBIE.
Freshwater limits bite regionally, not nationallySOURCED
Over-allocated catchments: Canterbury, Otago, Hawke’s Bay (Heretaunga). No-new-hydro rivers under Water Conservation Orders: Rangitata, Mohaka, Buller, Kawarau, Motu. Te Mana o te Wai subordinates new industrial water takes to ecosystem health and drinking water. Source: MfE NPS-FM; regional councils.
Binding status: NO — disclosed alongside the ceiling, not subtracted from it
The 218 TWh headline in section 01 stands as the physical/population production ceiling. Carbon, freshwater and land constraints are flagged here for a later model revision (D-077), where process-emission anchors and specific build pathways get reconciled against them. Not yet wired in. Not yet binding.
national_production_ceiling.json (generated from CEILING_VECTORS_P1.md), Inari Protocol APCM. Ecological overlay sourced to MfE GHG Inventory, Climate Change Commission, MfE NPS-FM & regional councils, DOC / MPI / MBIE, as cited per card.