01 / The pattern
Diesel anchor.
Productive
upside.

The pattern.

Diesel displacement creates the anchor case — the screening economics are strongest against current fuel cost and volatility. Oversizing the renewable system above contracted load engineers a surplus envelope. The framework then ranks productive uses against that envelope: desalination, ice, cold-chain food export, water, and resilience capacity each carry distinct value-per-kWh.

For Niue the anchor is screening-to-feasibility grade: diesel displacement at roughly ~0.8–1.0 MW contracted load, against a renewable build already running well above midday demand. The integrated chain is worth more than the sum of its parts — the framework captures that integration premium explicitly. The lead here is sovereignty and resilience, not a quoted return; a bankable case is built only under engagement.

~20
Island states with equivalent grid profiles.
SPC · IRENA
~0.9MW
Contracted load · diesel displacement anchor.
Screening · T2
4–7×
Midday solar over load · the engineered surplus.
Modelled
100%
Value kept home · local-ownership trajectory.
Niue · CM-0
02 / Status
Scoping.
Pilot
conversations.

Status.

Niue is the proven first-instance Pacific calibration — run end-to-end on real numbers, with a full provenance trail. The wider island cohort is next. Once the Niue template is in hand, it applies to roughly twenty island states with equivalent grid profiles through parameter swaps, and the marginal cost per additional jurisdiction drops by an order of magnitude.

Engage

A pilot, a template, then a programme.

Pacific work typically begins with a single-country pilot funded by DFI or government grant. The framework templates outward once the first calibration is validated. Multi-country programmes follow after the template is proven.

Each jurisdiction is scoped on its own terms; a scoping conversation is the first step.