Anchor Scenario Explorer — New Zealand

surplus 108 TWh · Band C robustfalsification PASS ×4 · 18,564 subsetsWALL D-017SCENARIO, NOT FORECAST

With the 0.70 dial and export competing honestly, max-commit postures place 78 of 108 TWh (78 productive + 0 exported, inside the 40% cap); sovereignty-first holds at 77.6 TWh, buying basics rungs instead of volume — a real three-way decision surface.

Surplus allocation — the four postures on one axis

e fuelsdata centremineral refiningaluminium smelter retentiongrid storage cellsdairy process heatammonia fertilisercold chainaquaculture rassilicon polysiliconred meat processingcea greenhousegreen steel eafunanchored
020406080100TWhbalanced+0 TWh vs revenue-firste fuels — 28.0 TWh (P10 4.0) · sign 2033 · h2 efuels export consortia28data centre — 10.0 TWh (P10 0.5) · sign 2030 · hyperscale regional compute10mineral refining — 7.0 TWh (P10 0.7) · sign 2030 · legacy aluminium smelter dr contracted7aluminium smelter retention — 5.2 TWh (P10 4.6) · sign 2027 · legacy aluminium smelter dr contracted5grid storage cells — 5.0 TWh (P10 1.0) · sign 2031 · battery storage manufacturing5dairy process heat — 5.0 TWh (P10 1.0) · sign 2027 · dairy processing cooperatives5ammonia fertiliser — 4.4 TWh (P10 2.1) · sign 2028 · ammonia fertiliser offtake4cold chain — 4.0 TWh (P10 1.0) · sign 2028 · dairy processing cooperatives4silicon polysilicon — 3.0 TWh (P10 0.8) · sign 2032 · unclassedred meat processing — 3.0 TWh (P10 0.5) · sign 2029 · meat processing coopscea greenhouse — 1.5 TWh (P10 0.2) · sign 2029 · covered crop growersgreen steel eaf — 1.5 TWh (P10 0.3) · sign 2026 · integrated steelmaker eaffree 30sovereignty first+0 TWh vs revenue-firste fuels — 28.0 TWh (P10 4.0) · sign 2033 · h2 efuels export consortia28data centre — 10.0 TWh (P10 0.5) · sign 2030 · hyperscale regional compute10mineral refining — 7.0 TWh (P10 0.7) · sign 2030 · legacy aluminium smelter dr contracted7aluminium smelter retention — 5.2 TWh (P10 4.6) · sign 2027 · legacy aluminium smelter dr contracted5grid storage cells — 5.0 TWh (P10 1.0) · sign 2031 · battery storage manufacturing5dairy process heat — 5.0 TWh (P10 1.0) · sign 2027 · dairy processing cooperatives5ammonia fertiliser — 4.4 TWh (P10 2.1) · sign 2028 · ammonia fertiliser offtake4cold chain — 4.0 TWh (P10 1.0) · sign 2028 · dairy processing cooperatives4silicon polysilicon — 3.0 TWh (P10 0.8) · sign 2032 · unclassedred meat processing — 3.0 TWh (P10 0.5) · sign 2029 · meat processing coopscea greenhouse — 1.5 TWh (P10 0.2) · sign 2029 · covered crop growersgreen steel eaf — 1.5 TWh (P10 0.3) · sign 2026 · integrated steelmaker eaffree 30revenue first+0 TWh vs revenue-firste fuels — 28.0 TWh (P10 4.0) · sign 2033 · h2 efuels export consortia28data centre — 10.0 TWh (P10 0.5) · sign 2030 · hyperscale regional compute10mineral refining — 7.0 TWh (P10 0.7) · sign 2030 · legacy aluminium smelter dr contracted7aluminium smelter retention — 5.2 TWh (P10 4.6) · sign 2027 · legacy aluminium smelter dr contracted5grid storage cells — 5.0 TWh (P10 1.0) · sign 2031 · battery storage manufacturing5dairy process heat — 5.0 TWh (P10 1.0) · sign 2027 · dairy processing cooperatives5ammonia fertiliser — 4.4 TWh (P10 2.1) · sign 2028 · ammonia fertiliser offtake4cold chain — 4.0 TWh (P10 1.0) · sign 2028 · dairy processing cooperatives4aquaculture ras — 3.0 TWh (P10 0.5) · sign 2030 · aquaculture cold chainred meat processing — 3.0 TWh (P10 0.5) · sign 2029 · meat processing coopscea greenhouse — 1.5 TWh (P10 0.2) · sign 2029 · covered crop growersgreen steel eaf — 1.5 TWh (P10 0.3) · sign 2026 · integrated steelmaker eaffree 30resilience first−6 TWh vs revenue-firste fuels — 28.0 TWh (P10 4.0) · sign 2033 · h2 efuels export consortia28data centre — 10.0 TWh (P10 0.5) · sign 2030 · hyperscale regional compute10mineral refining — 7.0 TWh (P10 0.7) · sign 2030 · legacy aluminium smelter dr contracted7grid storage cells — 2.5 TWh (P10 1.0) · sign 2031 · battery storage manufacturingdairy process heat — 5.0 TWh (P10 1.0) · sign 2027 · dairy processing cooperatives5ammonia fertiliser — 4.4 TWh (P10 2.1) · sign 2028 · ammonia fertiliser offtake4cold chain — 4.0 TWh (P10 1.0) · sign 2028 · dairy processing cooperatives4aquaculture ras — 3.0 TWh (P10 0.5) · sign 2030 · aquaculture cold chainsilicon polysilicon — 1.9 TWh (P10 0.8) · sign 2032 · unclassedred meat processing — 3.0 TWh (P10 0.5) · sign 2029 · meat processing coopscea greenhouse — 1.5 TWh (P10 0.2) · sign 2029 · covered crop growersgreen steel eaf — 1.5 TWh (P10 0.3) · sign 2026 · integrated steelmaker eaffree 36

Posture deep-dive

Surplus → anchors → sovereignty basics

anchored 78 TWhe fuels 28.0 TWhe fuelsmineral refining 7.0 TWhmineral refiningdata centre 10.0 TWhdata centredairy process heat 5.0 TWhdairy process heatcold chain 4.0 TWhcold chaingrid storage cells 5.0 TWhgrid storage cellsaluminium smelter retention 5.2 TWhaluminium smelter retentiongreen steel eaf 1.5 TWhgreen steel eafcea greenhouse 1.5 TWhcea greenhouseammonia fertiliser 4.4 TWhammonia fertiliserred meat processing 3.0 TWhred meat processingsilicon polysilicon 3.0 TWhsilicon polysiliconcomms dataenergy elecenergy equipmentenergy fuelsfood calfood inputsfood securityhealthindustrial basematerialsmaterials constructionmobility

Signing calendar

202620272028202920302031203220332034203578 TWhgreen steel eaf: sign by 2026 · 1.5 TWhgreen steel eaf · 2dairy process heat: sign by 2027 · 5.0 TWhdairy process heat · 5aluminium smelter retention: sign by 2027 · 5.2 TWhaluminium smelter retention · 5cold chain: sign by 2028 · 4.0 TWhcold chain · 4ammonia fertiliser: sign by 2028 · 4.4 TWhammonia fertiliser · 4cea greenhouse: sign by 2029 · 1.5 TWhcea greenhouse · 2red meat processing: sign by 2029 · 3.0 TWhred meat processing · 3mineral refining: sign by 2030 · 7.0 TWhmineral refining · 7data centre: sign by 2030 · 10.0 TWhdata centre · 10grid storage cells: sign by 2031 · 5.0 TWhgrid storage cells · 5silicon polysilicon: sign by 2032 · 3.0 TWhsilicon polysilicon · 3e fuels: sign by 2033 · 28.0 TWhe fuels · 28signing calendar · cumulative anchored TWh

Falsification — optimiser vs the field

count baseline0.00random null p900.48SELECTED0.60optimiser vs 18,564 feasible portfolios — PASS

Surplus → anchors → sovereignty basics

anchored 78 TWhe fuels 28.0 TWhe fuelsmineral refining 7.0 TWhmineral refiningdairy process heat 5.0 TWhdairy process heatdata centre 10.0 TWhdata centrecold chain 4.0 TWhcold chaingrid storage cells 5.0 TWhgrid storage cellsammonia fertiliser 4.4 TWhammonia fertilisercea greenhouse 1.5 TWhcea greenhousesilicon polysilicon 3.0 TWhsilicon polysiliconred meat processing 3.0 TWhred meat processinggreen steel eaf 1.5 TWhgreen steel eafaluminium smelter retention 5.2 TWhaluminium smelter retentioncomms dataenergy elecenergy equipmentenergy fuelsfood calfood inputsfood securityhealthindustrial basematerialsmaterials constructionmobility

Signing calendar

202620272028202920302031203220332034203578 TWhgreen steel eaf: sign by 2026 · 1.5 TWhgreen steel eaf · 2dairy process heat: sign by 2027 · 5.0 TWhdairy process heat · 5aluminium smelter retention: sign by 2027 · 5.2 TWhaluminium smelter retention · 5cold chain: sign by 2028 · 4.0 TWhcold chain · 4ammonia fertiliser: sign by 2028 · 4.4 TWhammonia fertiliser · 4cea greenhouse: sign by 2029 · 1.5 TWhcea greenhouse · 2red meat processing: sign by 2029 · 3.0 TWhred meat processing · 3mineral refining: sign by 2030 · 7.0 TWhmineral refining · 7data centre: sign by 2030 · 10.0 TWhdata centre · 10grid storage cells: sign by 2031 · 5.0 TWhgrid storage cells · 5silicon polysilicon: sign by 2032 · 3.0 TWhsilicon polysilicon · 3e fuels: sign by 2033 · 28.0 TWhe fuels · 28signing calendar · cumulative anchored TWh

Falsification — optimiser vs the field

count baseline0.00random null p900.55SELECTED0.66optimiser vs 18,564 feasible portfolios — PASS

Surplus → anchors → sovereignty basics

anchored 78 TWhe fuels 28.0 TWhe fuelsdata centre 10.0 TWhdata centremineral refining 7.0 TWhmineral refiningdairy process heat 5.0 TWhdairy process heatcold chain 4.0 TWhcold chainaluminium smelter retention 5.2 TWhaluminium smelter retentiongrid storage cells 5.0 TWhgrid storage cellsammonia fertiliser 4.4 TWhammonia fertiliserred meat processing 3.0 TWhred meat processinggreen steel eaf 1.5 TWhgreen steel eafaquaculture ras 3.0 TWhaquaculture rascea greenhouse 1.5 TWhcea greenhousecomms dataenergy elecenergy fuelsfood calfood inputsfood securityhealthindustrial basematerialsmaterials constructionmobility

Signing calendar

202620272028202920302031203220332034203578 TWhgreen steel eaf: sign by 2026 · 1.5 TWhgreen steel eaf · 2dairy process heat: sign by 2027 · 5.0 TWhdairy process heat · 5aluminium smelter retention: sign by 2027 · 5.2 TWhaluminium smelter retention · 5cold chain: sign by 2028 · 4.0 TWhcold chain · 4ammonia fertiliser: sign by 2028 · 4.4 TWhammonia fertiliser · 4red meat processing: sign by 2029 · 3.0 TWhred meat processing · 3cea greenhouse: sign by 2029 · 1.5 TWhcea greenhouse · 2data centre: sign by 2030 · 10.0 TWhdata centre · 10mineral refining: sign by 2030 · 7.0 TWhmineral refining · 7aquaculture ras: sign by 2030 · 3.0 TWhaquaculture ras · 3grid storage cells: sign by 2031 · 5.0 TWhgrid storage cells · 5e fuels: sign by 2033 · 28.0 TWhe fuels · 28signing calendar · cumulative anchored TWh

Falsification — optimiser vs the field

count baseline0.00random null p900.44SELECTED0.61optimiser vs 18,564 feasible portfolios — PASS

Surplus → anchors → sovereignty basics

anchored 72 TWhe fuels 28.0 TWhe fuelsmineral refining 7.0 TWhmineral refiningdairy process heat 5.0 TWhdairy process heatdata centre 10.0 TWhdata centrecold chain 4.0 TWhcold chaingrid storage cells 2.5 TWhgrid storage cellsammonia fertiliser 4.4 TWhammonia fertilisercea greenhouse 1.5 TWhcea greenhousesilicon polysilicon 1.9 TWhsilicon polysiliconred meat processing 3.0 TWhred meat processinggreen steel eaf 1.5 TWhgreen steel eafaquaculture ras 3.0 TWhaquaculture rascomms dataenergy elecenergy equipmentenergy fuelsfood calfood inputsfood securityhealthindustrial basematerialsmaterials constructionmobility

Signing calendar

202620272028202920302031203220332034203572 TWhgreen steel eaf: sign by 2026 · 1.5 TWhgreen steel eaf · 2dairy process heat: sign by 2027 · 5.0 TWhdairy process heat · 5cold chain: sign by 2028 · 4.0 TWhcold chain · 4ammonia fertiliser: sign by 2028 · 4.4 TWhammonia fertiliser · 4cea greenhouse: sign by 2029 · 1.5 TWhcea greenhouse · 2red meat processing: sign by 2029 · 3.0 TWhred meat processing · 3mineral refining: sign by 2030 · 7.0 TWhmineral refining · 7data centre: sign by 2030 · 10.0 TWhdata centre · 10aquaculture ras: sign by 2030 · 3.0 TWhaquaculture ras · 3grid storage cells: sign by 2031 · 2.5 TWhgrid storage cells · 2silicon polysilicon: sign by 2032 · 1.9 TWhsilicon polysilicon · 2e fuels: sign by 2033 · 28.0 TWhe fuels · 28signing calendar · cumulative anchored TWh

Falsification — optimiser vs the field

count baseline0.00random null p900.48SELECTED0.58optimiser vs 18,564 feasible portfolios — PASS

Posture gauges

balanced

72%utilisation36%top class36%flexibleenersovlatflexdivconc

sovereignty first

72%utilisation36%top class36%flexibleenersovlatflexdivconc

revenue first

72%utilisation36%top class37%flexibleenersovlatflexdivconc

resilience first

66%utilisation39%top class39%flexibleenersovlatflexdivconc