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稲荷 Inari Protocol — Housing Scorecard · dwelling embodied + operational energy & carbon

Dwelling energy & carbon scorecard · D-080

Stack it in timber, heat it with a pump: the apartment beats the house on both energy accounts.

Two accounts for four ways to build and heat a New Zealand dwelling — what each takes in energy and carbon to build (embodied), and what it takes to keep warm for 60 years after (operational). Mass timber flips the embodied account from source to sink; density and a heat pump flip the operational account.

ENERGY + CARBON ONLY · NO COST DATAS = sourced · EST = estimated/derived

Accounts 1 + 2 — the scorecard

Four ways to build and heat the same climate — held side by side

All four archetypes sit in Auckland (HDD18 1,140) so the comparison isolates structure and heating system, not weather — the climate variable gets its own account further down. Frame is either light timber (New Zealand's default detached structure) or mass timber (CLT/LVL — identical intensity whether the building is 3 or 6 levels; height changes the operational account, not this one). Heating is either gas into a pre-2022-minimum building, or a heat pump behind H1-2023 insulation.

Embodied — structural frame, kgCO₂e/m²S / EST

-200 0 +200 +400 6-level frame · reinforced concrete (reference) +385 Detached · light timber +30 Mass timber · 3- & 6-level −266 kgCO₂e / m² of structural frame (A1–A3) · sink = left of zero

Detached and mass-timber archetypes carry one embodied number regardless of which heating system sits on top — heating doesn't touch the frame. Reinforced concrete is shown dashed for scale only; no archetype here is built in concrete. Mass timber's −266 is sourced [S, MPI/PTL · Buchanan 2022]; detached's +30 and all embodied-energy figures below are estimated [EST].

Operational — delivered energy, kWh/yrS / EST

1,000 10,000 Detached · gas · pre-2022 8,090 Detached · heat pump · H1 1,586 3-level · mass timber · H1 1,056 6-level · mass timber · H1 955 kWh/yr delivered (fuel/electricity), log scale · Auckland, HDD18 1,140 held constant

Heat pumps run at ≈3.0 effective COP throughout (heat demand ÷ delivered electricity) — detached-HP draws 1,586 kWh for 4,758 kWh of heat. H1-2023 insulation alone cuts detached space-heat demand ~40% (3,880 → 2,328 kWh/yr) before the heat pump is even switched on; density then compounds it through form factor, pulling 3- and 6-level mass timber down to 1,056 and 955 kWh/yr delivered.

In plain termsA house and an apartment built to the same rules can land on opposite sides of the carbon ledger. Concrete apartments rack up a big one-off carbon debt to build; timber apartments bank a carbon credit instead. And because apartments share walls, they leak far less heat than a stand-alone house — so they take less energy to keep warm every year after that, for as long as they stand.

Account 1, continued — the honesty check

Mass timber doesn't save total energy to build. It saves fossil energy.

Don't let the carbon story oversell the energy story. Add up every megawatt-hour it takes to grow, mill, kiln-dry and assemble a mass-timber frame and it uses more total primary energy per m² than reinforced concrete — mass timber has no total-energy advantage, and this exhibit won't claim one. What it has is a fuel advantage: about 90% of that energy is renewable biomass (bio-boiler kiln-drying, plus the wood's own biogenic content) — so the fossil share of mass timber's embodied energy runs far below concrete's.

Total primary vs fossil-only embodied energy, MWh/m²EST

0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Reinforced concrete 1.24 total 1.04 fossil Mass timber (CLT) 1.40 total 0.11 fossil MWh / m² of structural frame · dashed = total primary, solid = fossil-only

Concrete: 1.24 total, ~1.04 fossil — nearly the whole total is fossil. Mass timber: 1.40 total (higher, not lower) but only ~0.11 fossil — ~90% of it is renewable biomass. Net effect: mass timber's fossil/grid embodied energy runs ~89% below concrete's. Source: Alcorn 2003 × Buchanan/PTL 2022 × NZ EPDs [EST].

In plain termsBuilding in timber doesn't use less total energy than building in concrete — if anything, slightly more. But almost all of that energy comes from wood waste and biomass, not coal, gas or grid power. So the fossil part of the energy bill nearly disappears, even though the total energy bill doesn't shrink. Both things are true; we're not hiding the less flattering one.

The finding, at stock scale

Run it across two million dwellings and the same archetype wins both accounts at once

Mass timber, medium-density, heat-pumped, H1-insulated: apply that one archetype across an illustrative 2,000,000-dwelling New Zealand stock — a scenario, not a forecast — and it wins the embodied account and the operational account simultaneously, not just per m².

2,000,000
dwellings · illustrative stock
2.84
TWh/yr operational electricity
7.08M
m³ mass-timber demand · feeds the timber chain
−5.47
MtCO₂e embodied · net sink

Illustrative stock, EST — scenario, not forecast.

Heat-pumped draw vs the abundance model's electrified-floor heat vector (MWh/cap)S

0.53 1.52 3.65 0 4 MWh/cap
actual heat-pumped draw — 0.53 D-077 heat subvector ceiling — 1.52 D-077 floor ceiling, conservative — 3.65

The dwelling stock's actual heat-pumped electricity draw lands under both ceilings the wider Inari abundance model budgets for — consistent with, not equal to, the electrified-floor heat vector. The gap is the heat pump's efficiency dividend against the floor's conservative resistive-heating assumption.

In plain termsWhen the national energy model works out the bare minimum every household needs, it conservatively assumes electric heating with no efficiency gain — like a simple heater. Real heat pumps do the same job on about a third of the electricity. So a country that actually heats its homes with heat pumps needs noticeably less power than that conservative minimum assumes. That's headroom, not a shortfall.

Account 2, continued — climate load

The same insulated, heat-pumped home needs ~2.6× more heating in Invercargill than Auckland

Everything above holds climate constant at Auckland to isolate structure and system. Move the same H1-insulated, heat-pumped dwelling around the country and heating-degree-days (HDD18 — NIWA's sourced 1981–2010 normal, base 18°C) do the rest of the work. Auckland asks the least of any main centre; Invercargill asks the most.

HDD18 by region, ascendingSOURCED · NIWA 1981–2010

1,000 2,000 3,000 Whangārei 1,023 Auckland 1,140 Tauranga 1,324 Napier 1,482 Gisborne 1,483 Wellington 1,625 New Plymouth 1,640 Hamilton 1,780 Palmerston North 1,872 Blenheim 1,938 Nelson/Tasman 2,108 Hokitika 2,319 Christchurch 2,370 Dunedin 2,559 Queenstown 2,813 Invercargill 2,994 HDD18, base 18°C · NIWA 1981–2010 normal · 16 regions, ascending
fewer heating-degree-days (milder)more heating-degree-days (colder)

Auckland → Christchurch → Invercargill: 1,140 → 2,370 → 2,994. Sourced per-region from NIWA's "Climate and Weather of [Region]" reports — no single national table exists.

In plain termsHeating-degree-days measure how cold it gets and for how long — more of them, more energy needed to stay warm. A well-built Auckland home and an identically well-built Invercargill home will not use the same energy: the southern home starts from a much colder climate, and the archetypes above have to be read against wherever they're actually sited.

Proven, not hypothetical

New Zealand has already built — and occupied — mass-timber housing from 3 to 6 storeys

None of the archetypes above are extrapolated past what's been consented and lived in. New Zealand has built mass-timber residential buildings across the full 3-to-6-level range this scorecard's medium-density archetypes model. The tallest: Community Lane B (Kāinga Ora), Avondale — 30 apartments, CLT and LVL structure, completed 2025.

3storeys
CLT retirement-village dwelling, Christchurch
≈150 vs ≈459 kgCO₂e/m² concrete-equivalent, whole structure incl. foundations — a measured ~67% cut
built · occupied
5storeys
Clearwater Quays, Christchurch
Mass-timber residential mid-rise
built · occupied
5storeys
Te Pā Tauira, Dunedin
CLT structure, mass-timber residential mid-rise
built · occupied
6storeys
Community Lane B (Kāinga Ora), Avondale
30 apartments · CLT + LVL · completed 2025
tallest built

All four are real, consented, built and occupied residential buildings — mass-timber housing at density, proven in New Zealand from 3 to 6 storeys, not modelled as a hypothetical. Taller mass-timber buildings exist in NZ (e.g. 8-storey office stock) but the tallest built mass-timber residential is 6 storeys.

Sources: BRANZ (HEEP, LCAQuick, CO2NSTRUCT) · MPI/PTL (Buchanan 2022) · MBIE (H1-2023, Building for Climate Change) · NIWA (regional Climate & Weather series, 1981–2010) · Kāinga Ora · Mid-Rise Wood Construction.
Scenario, not forecast · order-of-magnitude · independent analysis, not commissioned · dwelling sub-model D-080, feeding D-077 (electrified-floor heat vector) & D-078 (engineered-timber chain) · scope: embodied + operational energy/carbon accounts only.
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