Niue · Solar Overbuild — the surplus, charted

Solar resource (GHI)

5.2 kWh/m²/day

annual mean · 3.6 (Jun) → 6.4 (Dec) · NASA POWER

Solar capacity (post Phase-2)

3.86 MW

1.06 MW (2019) → +2.8 MW (2025–26) · MW = megawatts

Midday overbuild

4–7×

solar vs ~0.5–0.7 MW midday load

Productive surplus

1,950 MWh/yr

the asset · curtailed (thrown away) under today's plan

1 · Solar resource & generation potential, by month

monthly GHI (bars) · derived max PV generation from 3.86 MW (line) · hover for values

GHI — solar irradiance, the strength of sunlight reaching the ground (kWh/m²/day) Generation potential (MWh/month, 3.86 MW at PR (performance ratio) 0.80)

Reading. Niue's resource swings with the austral seasons — high Nov–Feb, a winter dip May–Jul — yet even the low months over-produce against a ~0.5–0.7 MW midday load. Generation potential is what 3.86 MW could make at this resource with a 0.80 performance ratio; the useful fraction is capped by storage and load, which is the whole point. DERIVED · EST

2 · A representative day — the overbuild, hour by hour

solar generation vs load · the shaded wedge is midday surplus · hover for values

Solar generation (MW) Island load (MW) Midday surplus — clean power with no home

Reading. Load peaks after sundown — lighting, cooking — exactly when solar is gone. Midday, solar over-produces four-to-seven-fold. The 7 MWh Phase-2 battery time-shifts part of the wedge into the evening; the rest is curtailed. That curtailed remainder, annualised, is the ~1,950 MWh/yr productive surplus. The daily shape is illustrative (representative clear-day profile); the capacities and load band are sourced. T1 · shape illustrative

3 · Annual energy balance — potential vs. use vs. surplus

gigawatt-hours per year · where the overbuild goes

Reading. Generation potential from 3.86 MW at Niue's resource comfortably exceeds total island demand. The plan sizes solar to hit an 80% renewable share of today's ~3–4 GWh demand — never to build surplus on purpose. The ~1,950 MWh/yr productive surplus is what abundance-led planning would point at desalination, cold-chain, and agri value-add instead of curtailing. Potential is a derived estimate; demand and surplus are sourced. DERIVED · EST T1

Provenance. Publishable, screening-grade figures only. Every quantified claim carries the envelope value · unit · fidelity_tier · confidence · evidence · source.
What's plotted. T2 monthly GHI from NASA POWER climatology at Niue (19.05°S, 169.92°W); solar 1.06 MW → 3.86 MW post-Phase-2, 7 MWh BESS (battery energy storage system), NZ$20.5M MFAT build; demand ~3–4 GWh/yr; midday load ~0.5–0.7 MW, evening peak ~0.8–1.0 MW; RE (renewable energy) 30%→38%→80% target. DERIVED generation potential = GHI × 3.86 MW × 0.80 performance ratio (a transparent upper estimate; real yield is lower after curtailment). T1 productive surplus ~1,950 MWh/yr; LCOE (levelised cost of energy) ≈ USD 61/MWh. The representative-day profile is an illustrative clear-day shape, not measured half-hourly dispatch.
Sources. NASA POWER (ALLSKY_SFC_SW_DWN) · ADB Clean & Resilient Energy TAR 57265-001 (2024) · IRENA Pacific Lighthouses: Niue (2013) · NiSERM 2015–2025 · UNDP Niue Energy Summit 2025 · Government of Niue · Vector Powersmart/SEANZ (Phase 1). Niue is an isolated island micro-grid (a small, self-contained power grid) — absolute figures are permitted (islands clause). Continental jurisdictions render relative-only. No bankable (finance-ready, lender-grade) returns and no Enleashed value-side figures appear on this page.

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What this dashboard does not publish

No IRR, DSCR, NPV, payback, gross margin, CAPEX dollar figures, or value-side pools. Those are gated and render only at bankable fidelity under engagement. This page shows the physical resource and the engineered surplus — the front of the pipeline, not the finance.

Niue: the surplus, charted.

See the full feasibility-grade read on Niue.