Overview
The Surplus-to-Structure model library. 18 core models, 63 modules, 5 use-case clusters. Library views describe the content; Topology views describe relationships, dependencies and coverage.
18 Core Models
1 upstream gate (CM-0), 11 analytical (CM-1 to CM-11), 1 real options (CM-13), 1 defence procurement (CM-14), 1 platform (CM-12).
40 Configurable Modules
Parameterised instances of parent model logic. Shared schemas. New industry = new module, not new model.
5 Use-Case Clusters
Productive Surplus · Grid Arbitrage · Strategic Materials · Sovereign Necessities (incl. Defence) · Platform / Finance.
8 Value Conversions
Every model maps to one: fuel avoided, stored, inventory, structure, mobility, cash flow, resilience, platform.
6 Jurisdictions (1 + 5)
CM-0 is a template. Calibrated instances: NZ (built), AU NEM (todo), Niue (todo), Pacific generic (todo), next country (pattern-driven).
~67% Universal
12 of 18 cores are jurisdiction-independent. Build once, use everywhere. New country = re-instantiate the other 6.
Five Use-Case Clusters
Defence Procurement merged into Sovereign Necessities — defence-energy resilience is a specialised sovereign-supply-chain logic with the same driver (national security), customer (government), funding (procurement appropriation), and margin (cost-plus + reliability premium).
| Cluster | Driver | Example chains | Lead models |
|---|---|---|---|
| Productive Surplus | "What to do with excess kWh?" | Water, ice, thermal, DAC, fermentation, RAS, vertical farms, e-boilers | CM-4 + CM-7 |
| Grid Arbitrage | "Time-localised price advantage" | Milling, cement, electrowinning, ammonia, DAC | CM-3 + CM-2 |
| Strategic Materials | "Sovereign industrial capability" | Magnets, battery materials, green steel, PtX, recycling | CM-2 + CM-8 |
| Sovereign Necessities | "Supply chain resilience + national security" | Fertiliser, pharma, stockpile, data centre, defence installations | CM-2 + CM-10 + CM-13 + CM-14 |
| Platform / Finance | "Scale across deployments" | Portfolio, learning curve, orchestration, ABM | CM-6 + CM-11 + CM-12 + CM-13 |
Core Models 15
Click any card to expand modules and parameters.
Modules 40
Configurable instances of parent model logic.
Sovereign Necessities incl. Defence
Production chains where the driver is supply chain resilience and national security rather than arbitrage or export margin. Defence procurement is a specialised sub-cluster within this — same logic, bespoke contract authorities.
Active Pipeline / Reference Projects
| Project | Status | Value | Structure |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Army Corps ERCIP $2B contract | Awarded Apr 2026 | $2B / 14 FY26 projects | IDIQ + design-build |
| RAAF Base Tindal Renewable Microgrid (EST10003) | Procurement Apr 2026 | ~2MW inv + 2.6-4.4 MW PV + 8-10 MWh BESS | DSC + Document & Construct |
| RAAF Darwin + Robertson Barracks | Operating | Behind-the-meter PV/storage | PPA for Renewable Energy NT |
| HMAS Stirling (Garden Island) | Operating | Integrated microgrid + storage | Defence-operated |
| Ellsworth AFB BESS | Operating | Critical backup for mission ops | West River Electric coop |
| Fort Bragg, White Sands, Cape Cod SFS | FY26 ERCIP queue | Energy system upgrades | ERCIP procurement |
| Overseas: Guam, Germany, Japan | FY26 ERCIP queue | Allied installation resilience | ERCIP + host nation |
| Civilian Sovereign | Defence (sub-cluster) | |
|---|---|---|
| Driver | Supply chain resilience, crisis prep, national security | Mission energy resilience, fuel convoy reduction, force readiness |
| Customer | Health systems · Government · Farmers · Critical infrastructure | Defence forces · Allied installations · Defence supply chain |
| Funding | Strategic procurement · Concessional · Carbon credits · Grants | ERCIP appropriation · MILCON · Defence capital · Host nation coop |
| Authorities | Health/agriculture/critical-infra acts · Privacy/data laws | 10 USC 2911, MILCON, EUL (10 USC 2667), PPA (10 USC 2922a) |
| Contract structure | PPA, take-or-pay, availability payment | EUL+PPA=EaaS, IDIQ, MILCON, ERCIP-style |
| Procurement | Open RFP, sovereign procurement codes | Cleared contractors, classification overhead, security review |
| Justification | Resilience value, cost of failure (lives/economy) | Mission readiness, classified resilience |
| Margin profile | Cost-plus with reliability premium | Cost-plus with reliability + cyber + supply chain integrity |
Master Matrix
Two dimensions. Rows: 8 value-conversion types. Columns: 5 use-case clusters. Cells populated with modules and cores. Empty cells are intentional — incompatible or coverage gaps.
Universal core
Grid
Microgrid
Productive
Strategic
Sovereign (incl. defence)
Dependency DAG
Solid arrows: hard prereqs. Dashed arrows: informational feeds. Layered top-down by build order.
L0 Data foundation
L1 Upstream gate
L2 Universal analytical
L3 Domain-specific
L4 Integration & platform
Path A — Greenfield Microgrid
ETL → CM-0 → CM-1 → CM-2 → CM-4 → CM-5 → CM-6.
Path B — Grid Arbitrage Industrial
ETL → Delivered Price → CM-0 → CM-1 → CM-2 → CM-3 → CM-6.
Path C — Productive Surplus Chain
CM-4 → CM-7 → [PS module] → CM-8 → CM-6.
Path D — Sovereign Necessity
CM-0 → CM-1 → CM-2 → CM-10 → CM-6 → CM-13.
Path E — Defence Installation
CM-9 → CM-4 → CM-10 → CM-14 → CM-6.
Path F — Platform / Portfolio
All Path A-E → CM-12 → CM-11 / Portfolio.
| Feedback | Output | Feeds back to | Replaces | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CM-2 → CM-0 | Stage-TEA wealth/TWh | CM-0 production mix weights | OOM wealth-per-TWh guesses | NZ tornado #1 sensitivity |
| CM-7 → CM-0 | Value-per-kWh from productive assets | CM-0 sectoral wealth | Food processing $/MWh estimate | Closes calibration loop |
| CM-6 → CM-0 | Project finance returns by sector | CM-0 production mix filter | Naive electricity-intensity weighting | Viability filter |
| CM-11 → CM-1 | Long-run rent-erosion observations | CM-1 market defensibility | Static defensibility assumption | Tests competitive survival |
| CM-3 → CM-0 | Observed dispatch achieved CF + price | CM-0 T3 surplus consumption | Theoretical surplus availability | Real arbitrage erodes surplus |
| CM-10 → CM-6 | Stress-test failure probabilities | CM-6 reserve sizing | Industry-standard contingency | Modelled risk replaces 10-15% rule of thumb |
Reverse Index
Given a module or client use-case, which cores get invoked? Useful when scoping a specific chain.
Template × Jurisdiction
CM-0 is a template. NZ instance is calibrated and back-tested. UNIV = universal logic (no per-country instance needed). Only 6 of 18 cores need re-instantiation per jurisdiction.
UNIV
TMPL
TODO
PART
BUILT
NZ — Existing
CM-0 back-tested 2000-2024. Sectoral wealth/TWh decomposition partial. Effort to extend: M.
AU NEM Regional
Most complex re-build. National waterfall less informative than regional. Effort: L.
Niue
CM-0 less relevant — island scale means engineered surplus. CM-4/5/6/7 lead. Effort: S-M.
Pacific Generic Template
After Niue, ~20 island states with parameter swaps. Effort: M after first.
Next Country Pattern
Source ingestion + demand decomp + wealth benchmark + sovereign mapping. Effort: M.
Universal Model Maintenance
12 of 18 cores universal. ~67% of library is jurisdiction-free.
Glossary
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| CM-n | Core Model. 15 in v5. |
| Tier 3 | Productive surplus — energy remaining after Tier 0/1/2 (floor, comfort, resilience reserve) allocated in CM-0. |
| Cluster | Use-case grouping by buyer/driver. 5 in v5. |
| Conversion | What energy becomes. 8 types: fuel avoided, stored, inventory, structure, mobility, cash flow, resilience, platform. |
| Universal | Model whose logic is jurisdiction-independent. Build once, use everywhere. |
| Jurisdictional | Model needing per-country calibration. 6 of 18 cores. |
| EaaS | Energy-as-a-Service. Defence contract structure combining EUL + PPA authorities. |
| ERCIP | Energy Resilience and Conservation Investment Program. US DoD funding for installation energy. |
| MLF | Marginal Loss Factor. AEMO adjustment converting regional price to nodal effective price. |
| p_eff | Effective delivered electricity price. spot × MLF + network + retail + losses + congestion. |
| CF | Capacity Factor. Actual run hours / 8760. |
| DSCR | Debt Service Coverage Ratio. Project finance covenant. |
| RAS | Recirculating Aquaculture System. Land-based fish farming with controlled water reuse. |
| PtX | Power-to-X. Surplus electricity → H₂ → ammonia / methanol / e-fuels. |
| DAC | Direct Air Capture. CO₂ removal from atmosphere. Flexible adsorbent systems. |
| ABM | Agent-Based Model. CM-11. Long-run market emergence simulation. |